Investing in infrastructure

OECD has an informative recent overview paper Pension Fund Investment in Infrastructure. The author looks at whether or not infrastructure deserves to be classified as a separate asset class (the evidence is inconclusive), risk-return profiles and benchmarks and other key items. But most interesting is the assessment of the barriers to pension fund investments, of which there are a great many. These are probably hard to overcome, except for the best run of institutions.

New online resources

The design is about as appealing as can be expected from a body of professional accountants, but we are talking about the newly free access to an important part of the world's economic operating system, namely International Financial Reporting Standards, together with the statements of International Financial Reporting Interpretation Committee (IFRIC) and Standing Interpretation Committee (SIC). Now we have the narrative to go with the taxonomy ...

Slightly less globally relevant is the recent availability of the Swiss XBRL Jurisdiction's website.

The tyranny of the present

In a recent issue of its flagship publication Sigma, SwissRe described Scenario analysis in insurance, identifying scenario analysis as a key tool to analyse fat-tail risks and their impact on profitability and competitive position of insurers. One of the pioneering sources of scenario analysis is the approach developed by Shell. Whereas scenario analysis is referred to as a key tool for both strategic planning as well as enterprise risk management of insurance, Sigma reports with some degree of astonishment that banks do not use it to assess their total enterprise risk exposure.

Applying the concept of scenario analysis to pension funds should be self-evident, not least if you think of a pension fund as the insurance subsidiary of your firm. It faces a set of opportunities, threats and parameters quite similar to those of an insurance, yet scenario analysis is not common in the pensions industry. Nevertheless, a number of pensions-specific scenarios easily come to mind: a jump in longevity due to unexpected medical progress, prolonged negative real interest rates, a pandemic (as explained in Sigma), regulatory changes to the competitive landscape ...

The Economist Intelligence Unit has just come up with its own bleak exercise in scenario analysis (hat tip Global Guerrillas). Its central forecast of stabilisation is assigned a probability of just 60%, whereas the more disruptive instability scenarios are assigned 30% (de-globalisation) and 10% (collapse in USD) respectively. Scenario analysis has been posted as a means to escape the tyranny of the present, but being where we are today, we are not so sure this is a good thing.

Capital preservation

As an institutional investor, we are always interested in informative long-term charts. This one fits the bill, even though it is probably meant to shock today's investor with its implicit statement that there was no money to be made in 43 years of investment in the Dow.

However, some qualifications need to be made. The obvious one is that the chart is just a price chart corrected for inflation, but without taking into account the dividend yield, which is probably about 5% p.a. by now. Getting that kind of return on top of real, inflation-adjusted capital preservation on a long-term basis is no mean feat indeed!

XBRL presentation in Brussels

Here are the slides of a presentation I gave a few days ago at the Brussels Stock Exchange. That was probably the most splendid place I spoke at to date.

Finance 2.0

View more presentations from SCFAS. (tags: cfa accounting)